COP29: Falling short on climate justice and ambition

Rather than delivering on promises of bold ambition, the outcomes signal a disappointing scenario—one that offers little assurance that developing nations will receive the support they need to adapt and address the escalating impacts of climate change. 

A central point of contention was the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) adopted at COP29. This goal, vague at best, has drawn criticism from countries like India, Bolivia, and Nigeria, as well as civil society. At a time when communities across Africa, Asia, South America and the Pacific are grappling with droughts, floods, heatwaves and rising sea levels among other climate impacts, the failure to deliver a robust and clear financial commitment is disgraceful. 

The NCQG includes two important numbers. First, a target of scaled up funding of USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035, which all actors are called on to help generate from all sources – public and private. Second, the commitment that replaces the USD100 billion annual commitment set in 2009 – of at least USD 300 billion per year by 2035 for developing countries' Parties for climate action.

Neither of these figures are sufficient for the level of action required. The lack of ambition is particularly glaring when considering the stark reality of what is needed. Adaptation finance needs alone are estimated to be between $215 billion and $387 billion annually through to 2030. The agreement offers no meaningful mechanism to meet those needs before 2035—a timeline that leaves millions at risk and vulnerable communities without immediate scale up of support. 

When compared, for example, to the level of annual global fossil fuel subsidies – a staggering $7 trillion a year – it's clear that the NCQG figures represent a lack of urgency and fairness in addressing the climate crisis.  

The text of the agreement is also ambiguous on who is responsible for these commitments and on what form the funding will come in. The 1.3 trillion figure is to be achieved by all actors—including public and private sectors outside the Paris Agreement—working together to scale up financing. However, relying on actors with no binding accountability to meet the needs of vulnerable nations is deeply problematic. When developed countries, bound by the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC, have consistently failed to meet their financial commitments to date, the expectation that actors outside the convention will step in on good faith is abhorrent. 

The USD 300 billion, meant to address urgent adaptation needs and support emissions reductions in developing countries, has only slightly more detail on how it will be met.  Its effectiveness is again undermined by the lack of clear accountability. The principle of equity is central to the climate change negotiations; those most responsible for climate change and with the greatest resources have a responsibility to provide climate finance to developing countries. Yet the language of this new commitment only has ‘developed country Parties taking the lead’.  

The NCQG includes a proposal to develop a roadmap from Baku (COP29) to Belem (in Brazil where COP30 will be held next year), to identify how the USD 1.3 trillion can be mobilised. We hope this will provide a route to more concrete sources of much needed funding so this figure can become a reality rather than a vague aspiration. But developed countries will need to come forward with much stronger actions and commitments for it to be effective. 

Developed countries have also blocked the inclusion of Loss and Damage within the NCQG, instead only acknowledging the gaps that remain in responding to the frequency and scale of loss and damage, both economic and non-economic. This leaves major questions about how the Loss and Damage Fund will become operational – at the moment it remains severely underfunded, with no regular and reliable sources of funds for it to allocate.  

This lack of ambition and commitment does not reflect the solidarity needed to tackle the climate crisis. It ignores the needs of communities already experiencing devastating impacts and falls far short of the ambition promised. 

Despite the shortcomings of COP29, developing countries will continue to fight for their rights and demand that their needs are met. For them, engagement isn’t optional – climate change threatens their very lives and livelihoods. 

Organisations like Concern Worldwide remain steadfast in our commitment to tackling climate change. Regardless of the COP outcomes, we are scaling up efforts to address humanitarian crises and combat hunger, which are increasingly driven by climate impacts. 

We know from our work with communities experiencing the impacts of climate change that people are already taking action to protect their lives and livelihoods. But the people with the least resources shouldn’t be bearing the costs of dealing with a problem that we in higher income countries created.  

As we look ahead, developed countries must step up. Countries like Ireland must continue to advocate for grants-based financing, reform of international financial systems, and deliver their fair share of climate finance earlier rather than later. It’s not just about playing a part; it’s about accountability for the historical and ongoing benefits derived from fossil fuels. 

Concern’s One Planet for All campaign is designed to inform and empower. Through actions, webinars, and panel discussions, we aim to help people in Ireland and beyond learn about climate change and take meaningful steps to address it. 

COP29 might not have delivered the outcomes we needed, but the fight for climate justice is far from over. From Baku to Belem and beyond, the call for a fair and just future continues.